2022 Grammy Predictions

Grammy predictions for the General categories, Pop, Alternative, and R&B. Predictions are what I think will/should win, while my picks are what I’d WANT to win

General

Record Of The Year

• “I Still Have Faith In You”- ABBA

• “Freedom”- Jon Batiste

• “I Get A Kick Out Of You”- Lady Gaga and Tony Bennett

• “Peaches”- Justin Bieber feat. Daniel Caesar and Giveon

• “Right On Time”- Brandi Carlile

• “Kiss Me More”- Doja Cat and SZA

• “Happier Than Ever”- Billie Eilish

• “Montero (Call Me By Your Name)”- Lil Nas X

• “drivers license”- Olivia Rodrigo

• “Leave The Door Open”- Silk Sonic (Bruno Mars and Anderson. Paak)

While I enjoy a majority of the songs here, I don’t know how you can deny “drivers license” from a win. Some might argue that “good 4 u” was the bigger song, and maybe it is, but “drivers license” was such a moment in time that people will try and fail to replicate it for years to come.

“I Get A Kick Out Of You” is the sentimental favorite, of course. I don’t see Tony Bennett being there physically, but Gaga would do an amazing job of honoring the icon by herself. I would, truly, love to see them walk away with it. Sometimes, it is appropriate to honor these legends the right way while they are alive and not pay no mind to what the internet has to say about it. That is also the case for “I Still Have Faith In You,” but none of the ABBA band members are in a situation like Tony Bennett. I think it’s a great comeback for them and I’m happy it’s here.

“Leave The Door Open” would normally be such a foolproof pick, but “drivers license” eclipses even Bruno himself. Which is wild to say, especially when you listen to that Silk Sonic album and remember just how ridiculously talented both of those guys are. “Put On A Smile,” a deep cut from that Silk Sonic record, has me pounding whatever is in front of me every time I hear it. As much as I like both songs, “Kiss Me More” and “Peaches” don’t scream ROTY, and neither does “Right On Time,” which is certainly no “The Joke,” but Brandi Carlile has earned her “elder-statesman” status of everything she releases getting nominated.

If “Old Town Road” didn’t get Lil Nas a Grammy, this song won’t either. I think the Grammys want to acknowledge this song for what it is, but would not let it walk away with the biggest honor of the night. It is just so far from what they typically want in a winner and there’s no getting around that.

If we’re judging based off of song quality, this category comes down to “drivers license” vs “Happier Than Ever” instantly. HTE had so much shock value to it upon first listen and is so universally loved by both fans and critics that it’s just an anomaly. But so did “drivers license,” just in a completely different way. DL put its artist on the map, HTE flipped the script for an artist everyone said couldn’t be as commercial as she was just a year or two ago. It is quite the fight between these two and it’s great to not be sure which one has the edge.

Prediction: “drivers license”

My Pick: “Happier Than Ever”

Album Of The Year

• We Are– Jon Batiste

• Love For Sale– Tony Bennett and Lady Gaga

• Justice (Triple Chucks Deluxe)– Justin Bieber

• Planet Her– Doja Cat

• Happier Than Ever– Billie Eilish

• Back of My Mind– H.E.R

• Montero– Lil Nas X

• Sour– Olivia Rodrigo

• Evermore– Taylor Swift

• Donda– Kanye West

I think that out of all four major categories, this is the one Olivia Rodrigo is most likely to lose. Sour is a good album, but, even with all the success it has had, I don’t think it warrants an automatic win. We could EASILY have another Beck Morning Phase moment and see Jon Batiste walk away with it.

With that being said, I don’t think ANY of these albums are the clear frontrunner. Love For Sale, while noteworthy for likely being Tony Bennett’s swan song, is nowhere near as impactful as the pairs first record, Cheek To Cheek. A win for Evermore would give Taylor Swift her fourth AOTY win and second in a row after Folklore’s win last year, but it simply has not had the staying power or cultural impact that its predecessor has. Its last-minute inclusion by the committee, along with Donda, which will not win either due to Kanye’s public tirades as of late, does not do it any favors.

Montero is a safe choice, but, in my eyes, would essentially just be the Grammys throwing their hands up and saying “Meh, why not.” It’s controversial, it’s “empowering,” apparently, it’s this, it’s that, it’s fine. Just my take.

H.E.R is, along with Billie Eilish, a Grammy darling. Which is all well and good, considering she is a beast of a musician and vocalist, but they are really pushing it with this one. BOMM is a overblown, weak project from an artist who could do so much better. Who HAS done so much better. These songs don’t sound like they mean anything, and could have easily been pulled off the shelf of any other R&B girl in the game right now. I never wanted H.E.R to be a cog in the machine, but whoever got her that hit with DJ Khaled must have pushed for it and this is what happened.

Genuinely, I think Justin Bieber has a shot here. “Anyone” and “Hold On” are his best lead singles to date, “Ghost” is climbing up the top 10 of the Hot 100 as we speak, and other tracks like “Die For You” with Dominic Fike, “As I Am” with Khalid, and “Deserve You” are absolute bangers. While Sour is a threat, it is not as overwhelming as Adele’s 25 was when Purpose was nominated a while back. This could be a dark horse.

Doja Cat’s Planet Her is another huge roadblock for Sour. It has produced four top 10 hits so far with “Need To Know,” “Kiss Me More,” “Woman” and “You Right” (feat. The Weeknd) and shows so signs of slowing down. Billie Eilish is another contender. HTE has NOT, as the “kids” would say, “aged like milk,” as initially predicted, but has proven itself to be a worthy follow up to WWAFA, WDWG. I think the title track alone has propelled the rest of the album to such great heights, and, at the same time, completely changed the general public’s perception of her in the most positive way possible, that it may be unstoppable. Overall, it could be a huge week for Billie and Finneas, after their Oscar win for “No Time To Die” this past weekend.

But, yes, Sour is here too. And it’s big. It’s REALLY big. Without “drivers license” in the picture, you still have “good 4 u,” “brutal,” “jealousy, jealousy,” “traitor,” “déjà vu” and more. It’s just an album of hits and will most definitely be a record that will be getting reissued/remastered versions 20 years from now, a 25-year anniversary tour, and the whole thing. It’s monstrous. However, while it is pretty bulletproof, it is not a perfect album by any means. An album doesn’t NEED to be perfect to win a Grammy, but I just don’t listen to it and think “Nothing else is touching this.” Which is fine. It’s her first album. She might walk away with it, and if she does, congrats to her. But she shouldn’t be expecting it.

Prediction: Sour

My Pick: Happier Than Ever

Song Of The Year

• “Bad Habits”- Ed Sheeran

• “A Beautiful Noise”- Brandi Carlile

• “drivers license”- Olivia Rodrigo

• “Fight For You”- H.E.R

• “Happier Than Ever”- Billie Eilish

• “Kiss Me More”- Doja Cat and SZA

• “Leave The Door Open”- Silk Sonic (Bruno Mars and Anderson. Paak)

• “Montero (Call Me By Your Name)- Lil Nas X

• “Peaches”- Justin Bieber feat. Daniel Caesar and Giveon

• “Right On Time”- Brandi Carlile

Most of these are retreads from the ROTY category and I think the same factors apply to them here. Ed Sheeran’s “Bad Habits” is a welcome addition among all the sameness in the big four categories…. I think a lot of people either dismiss it just because it’s Ed or can’t get past the drastic change in sound, when, in reality, this is a guy who can do just about anything and has experimented plenty in the past. “Shape Of You” was an experiment too and look how far that song took him.

“Fight For You” is H.E.R’s contribution to the Judah and the Black Messiah soundtrack and…. It’s fine. It doesn’t completely work for me for what I know she’s capable of, but I’m happy she’s recognized as much as she is. “A Beautiful Noise,” Carlile’s collaboration with Alicia Keys, is a pretty song, but is another that does nothing for me in the Grammy context. Also, it’s Carlile’s second nomination in the category, which is excessive.

Prediction: “drivers license”

My Pick “drivers license”

Best New Artist

• Arooj Aftab

• Jimmie Allen

• Baby Keem

• FINNEAS

• Glass Animals

• Japanese Breakfast

• The Kid LAROI

• Arlo Parks

• Olivia Rodrigo

• Saweetie

I’m gonna be honest, I want FINNEAS to win this. Very badly. Sure, he has been up onstage with Billie for all of their Grammy wins, but it has always been HER moment. He has been so gracious about all of it, but he deserves the recognition for being the driving force of Billie’s music.

But, you know, Olivia and Kid LAROI are here. Any other year, Kid LAROI wins it easy… I mean, really, “Stay” has been out since July and is still in the top 10. It is an impressive feat, Justin Bieber feature or not. Glass Animals are affected by Olivia’s presence as well, but I’m really glad “Heat Waves” had such an organic build to #1 on the Hot 100.

I’d personally like to see Baby Keem win, as I think a Kendrick Lamar co-sign is a big deal, but the Grammys don’t really do right by new rappers. Really cool seeing Arlo Parks and Japanese Breakfast here… both had fantastic albums last year, but I’m particularly excited to see Arlo blow up over the next year or so.

Prediction: Olivia Rodrigo

My Pick: FINNEAS

Pop

Best Pop Solo Performance

• “Anyone”- Justin Bieber

• “Right On Time”- Brandi Carlile

• “Happier Than Ever”- Billie Eilish

• “positions”- Ariana Grande

• “drivers license”- Olivia Rodrigo

Well, I’m partial to “Anyone” considering it’s my favorite Justin Bieber song of all time and I have a tattoo of the lyrics on my arm, but I do think it has a shot even though it’s not as well-known as “Peaches” or even “Lonely.” “positions” by Ariana Grande is another favorite of mine, and I would love to see it win, but I feel like it may have faded from the public consciousness just enough that it won’t be considered.

“drivers license” is a possibility in any category it’s in, but I think it’s really down to “Right On Time” and “Happier Than Ever.” If HTE doesn’t win ROTY or SOTY, which it likely won’t, I expect this to be its compensation category. The song, while nowhere near Eilish’s most commercially successful, is now her signature piece and deserves all of its acclaim.

Prediction: “Happier Than Ever”

My Pick: “Anyone”

Best Pop Duo/Group Performance

• “I Get A Kick Out Of You”- Tony Bennett and Lady Gaga

• “Lonely”- Justin Bieber and Benny Blanco

• “Butter”- BTS

• “Higher Power”- Coldplay

• “Kiss Me More”- Doja Cat and SZA

As much as I love Coldplay, Doja Cat, and SZA, I think both “Higher Power” and “Kiss Me More” are non-factors here. SZA’s “Good Days” should have been nominated for ROTY… just saying.

Justin Bieber would normally be the sentimental favorite with an emotional song like “Lonely,” but I think it’s down to Gaga/Tony and BTS. BTS should have won for “Dynamite” last year, and I think that, if Gaga/Tony were not here, they would win for “Butter,” but something tells me the Grammys will want to honor Tony Bennett in this one. This category is the best shot they have, and it would be a great time to honor the legend in a category that is secondary to the big four.

Prediction: “I Get A Kick Out Of You”

My Pick: “I Get A Kick Out Of You”

Best Traditional Pop Vocal Album

• Love For Sale– Tony Bennett and Lady Gaga

• Til We Meet Again (Live)– Norah Jones

• A Tori Kelly Christmas– Tori Kelly

• Ledisi Sings Nina– Ledisi

• That’s Life– Willie Nelson

• A Holly Dolly Christmas– Dolly Parton

That Ledisi album is something else, man. It has no chance up against Dolly and Gaga/Tony, but like, wow. It’s incredible. I enjoyed Willie Nelson’s jazz cover record… I’m a sucker for songs like “In The Wee Small Hours Of The Morning” and “I’ve Got You Under My Skin,” so I wouldn’t mind seeing this win.

Both Tori and Dolly’s Christmas albums were solid. Dolly very well may snatch it up just on sheer popularity alone. It is very much down to her against Gaga/Tony. While Love For Sale didn’t capture the magic that Cheek To Cheek did, again, it’s all about the circumstances.

Prediction: Love For Sale

My Pick: That’s Life

Best Pop Vocal Album

• Justice- Justin Bieber

• Planet Her– Doja Cat

• Happier Than Ever– Billie Eilish

• Positions– Ariana Grande

• Sour– Olivia Rodrigo

When you see the name of this category, you think it should go to the one with the best vocals, obviously. If that were the case, Ariana Grande wins it easily. Songs like “my hair,” “off the table” (feat. The Weeknd), and “pov” showcase Ariana’s best vocals in years, but it isn’t always that straightforward. Last year, Dua Lipa’s Future Nostalgia won over Harry Styles’ Fine Line. The year before that, Billie Eilish’s When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go won over Beyonce’s The Gift. It’s very strange.

Doja Cat’s record would be a great pick since she is extremely versatile on it, but I can’t see the Grammys giving it to her, despite her massive appeal. I think this is going to go to Sour. When you think of pop music this last year, Olivia is front and center. She’s likely going to dominate the big four, so I’d love for other people to get a win here and there in other areas, but Sour may be too massive.

Prediction: Sour

My Pick: Positions

Alternative

Best Alternative Music Album

• Shore– Fleet Foxes

• If I Can’t Have Love, I Want Power– Halsey

• Jubilee– Japanese Breakfast

• Collapsed In Sunbeams– Arlo Parks

• Daddy’s Home– St. Vincent

Man, this category is ROUGH. These are all excellent albums by a variety of newcomers and established names, and a win for any of them would be justified. Halsey working with Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross is something I would have never even dreamed of happening at this stage of her career, but the results on songs like “Bells Of Santa Fe,” “Easier Than Lying” and “The Tradition” are just outstanding. But then you have Daddy’s Home, which is just sublime. St. Vincent continues to be such a force of nature, and Arlo and JB are so hungry, that it makes for such interesting competition. Because of all the names attached, I say Halsey wins, but I’d be happy with any of them.

Prediction: If I Can’t Have Love, I Want Power

My Pick: Daddy’s Home

R&B

Best R&B Performance

• “Lost You”- Snoh Aalegra

• “Peaches”- Justin Bieber feat. Daniel Caesar and Giveon

• “Damage” H.E.R

• “Leave The Door Open”- Silk Sonic

• “Pick Up Your Feelings”- Jazmine Sullivan

“Leave The Door Open” is the ONLY option. Like… it’s Bruno Mars and Anderson .Paak TOGETHER and it’s sensational.

Prediction: “Leave The Door Open”

My Pick: “Leave The Door Open”

Best Traditional R&B Performance

• “I Need You- Jon Batiste

• “Bring It On Home To Me”- BJ The Chicago Kid, PJ Morton and Kenyon Dixon feat. Charlie Bereal

• “Born Again”- Leon Bridges feat. Robert Glasper

• “Fight For You”- H.E.R

• “How Much Can a Heart Take”- Lucky Daye feat. Yebba

How can you deny that Sam Cooke cover? Like… seriously? How can you? I like “Born Again” quite a bit too, but it’s just not even close.

Prediction: “Bring It On Home To Me”

My Pick: “Bring It On Home To Me”

Best R&B Song

• “Damage”- H.E.R

• “Good Days”- SZA (and Jacob Collier)

• “Heartbreak Anniversary”- Giveon

• “Leave The Door Open”- Silk Sonic

• “Pick Up Your Feelings”- Jazmine Sullivan

This is another tough one. I love all of these songs, even the H.E.R one, considering the album it’s on. “Heartbreak Anniversary” is undeniable, but like…. “Good Days” is RIGHT THERE. “Leave The Door Open” will probably crush my hopes for that one, but “Good Days” is in a class of its own.

Prediction: “Leave The Door Open”

My Pick: “Good Days”

Best R&B Album

• Temporary Highs In The Violet Skies– Snoh Aalegra

• We Are– Jon Batiste

• Gold Diggers Sound– Leon Bridges

• Back of My Mind– H.E.R

• Heaux Tales- Jazmine Sullivan

I really love Snoh Aalegra and Leon Bridges’ records, but you can deny Jazmine Sullivan this time around. She is truly one of the most fluid, consistent, and impressive vocalists of our generation and this project is more than deserving.

Prediction: Heaux Tales

My Pick: Heaux Tales